The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 107 No. 4 2025
Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation
Abstract
The low rate of inflation observed in the United States over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm-wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm-wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent drop is corroborated by survey data. During “the great resignation,” interfirm-wage competition rose, increasing inflation by around 1 percentage point in 2021.
- DOI
- 10.1162/rest_a_01312
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1027-1041
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref