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The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 107 No. 1 2025

The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity

Nicholas Bloom1; Philip Bunn2; Paul Mizen3; Pawel Smietanka4; Gregory Thwaites3

1 Stanford University · 2 Bank of England · 3 University of Nottingham · 4 Deutsche Bundesbank

open access

Abstract

We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly firm survey that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid-19 on inputs and outputs. We find that total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 6% during 2020–2021. The overall impact combined large reductions in ‘within-firm’ productivity, with offsetting positive ‘between-firm’ effects as less productive sectors, and less productive firms within them, contracted. Despite these large pandemic effects, firms’ post-Covid forecasts imply surprisingly little lasting impact on aggregate TFP. We also see significant heterogeneity over firms and sectors, with the greatest impacts in those requiring extensive in-person activity.

DOI
10.1162/rest_a_01298
Volume
107
Issue
1
Pages
28-41
Language
en
Sources
openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref

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