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Review of Financial Studies Vol. 38 No. 2 2025

The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters

José Mustre-del-Río1; Juan M. Sánchez2; Ryan Mather3; Kartik Athreya4

1 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City · 2 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 3 University of Wisconsin · 4 Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract

When a macroeconomic shock arrives, variation in household balance sheet health (captured by the presence of financial distress, or “FD”) leads to differential access to credit and hence a distribution in consumption responses. As we document, though, over the past two recessions, households in prior FD also experienced macroeconomic shocks more intensely than others, leading to a distribution of shock severity. Quantifying the importance of each dimension of heterogeneity (FD or shock severity) for consumption requires a structural model. We find that heterogeneity in FD matters more for shaping the responses of individual and aggregate consumption to shocks.

DOI
10.1093/rfs/hhae058
Volume
38
Issue
2
Pages
564-604
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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