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Estimating Security Betas Using Prior Information Based on Firm Fundamentals

Mathijs Cosemans¹; Rik Frehen²; Peter C. Schotman³; Rob Bauer³

¹ Erasmus University Rotterdam · ² Tilburg University · ³ Maastricht University

We propose a hybrid approach for estimating beta that shrinks rolling window estimates toward firm-specific priors motivated by economic theory. Our method yields superior forecasts of beta that have important practical implications. First, unlike standard rolling window betas, hybrid betas carry a significant price of risk in the cross-section even after controlling for characteristics. Second, the hybrid approach offers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample benefits for investors who use factor models to construct optimal portfolios. We show that the hybrid estimator outperforms existing estimators because shrinkage toward a fundamentals-based prior is effective in reducing measurement noise in extreme beta estimates. Received May 17, 2011; accepted October 7, 2015 by Editor Geert Bekaert.

DOI

10.1093/rfs/hhv131

Volume

29 (4)

Pages

1072-1112

Language

en

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