← Search

The Persistence of Miscalibration

Michael Boutros¹; Itzhak Ben-David²; John R. Graham³; Campbell R. Harvey³; John W. Payne⁴

¹ University of Toronto · ² The Ohio State University and NBER. · ³ Duke University and NBER · ⁴ Duke University

Abstract We analyze a panel of over 28,400 S&P 500 return forecasts by CFOs to examine whether the extent of CFOs’ miscalibration—providing forecast confidence intervals that are too narrow—decreases over time. We find no improvement with task repetition nor evidence of learning, that is, no improvement in response to past performance. Across CFOs, miscalibration appears to be a persistent personal trait. We find some evidence that the degree of miscalibration is related to birth cohort and stock market familiarity.

DOI

10.1093/rfs/hhaf070

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

openalex crossref