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Bond Illiquidity and Excess Volatility

Jack Bao1; Jun Pan2

1 Fisher College · 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Review of Financial Studies 2013 open access

We find that the empirical volatilities of corporate bond and CDS returns are higher than implied by equity return volatilities and the Merton model. This excess volatility may arise because structural models inadequately capture either fundamentals or illiquidity. Our evidence supports the latter explanation. We find little relation between excess volatility and measures of firm fundamentals and the volatility of firm fundamentals but some relation with variables proxying for time-varying illiquidity. Consistent with an illiquidity explanation, firm-level bond portfolio returns, which average out bond-specific effects, significantly decrease excess volatility.

DOI
10.1093/rfs/hht037
Volume
26 (12)
Pages
3068-3103
Language
en
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Sources
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