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Fragility of Safe Asset Markets

Thomas M. Eisenbach1; Gregory Phelan2

1 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 2 Williams College

Review of Financial Studies 2026

Abstract In March 2020, safe asset markets experienced surprising and unprecedented price crashes. We explain how strategic investor behavior can create such market fragility in a model with investors valuing safety, investors valuing liquidity, and constrained dealers. While safety investors and liquidity investors can form a symbiotic relationship with offsetting trades during times of stress, strategic interactions among liquidity investors harbor the potential for self-fulfilling fragility. When the market is fragile, standard flight-to-safety can have a destabilizing effect and trigger a “dash-for-cash” by liquidity investors. Well-designed policy interventions can reduce market fragility ex ante and restore orderly functioning ex post.

DOI
10.1093/rfs/hhaf064
Volume
39 (5)
Pages
1310-1361
Language
en
Export
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Sources
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