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Financial Intermediaries and the Yield Curve

ANDRÉS SCHNEIDER

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ,

Review of Financial Studies 2026

Abstract I study the yield curve dynamics in a general equilibrium model with financial intermediaries facing financing constraints. When constraints bind, intermediaries reallocate their portfolios, causing deadweight losses in aggregate consumption, thus affecting savers’ marginal utility. Because the yield curve is a forecast of marginal utility, intermediaries’ constraints show up, via general equilibrium forces, in long-term yields. I show that the mechanism connecting intermediaries’ constraints and long-term yields produces highly nonlinear interest rate dynamics and a positive real term premium in equilibrium. I extend the analysis to the nominal yield curve using a simple Taylor rule.

DOI
10.1093/rfs/hhaf102
Language
en
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