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Windfall income shocks with finite planning horizons

Michael Boutros

University of Toronto

Journal of Financial Economics 2026 open access

I study how the cognitive demands of financial planning shape household decisionmaking with respect to consumption out of windfall income shocks. I build a quantitative model of bounded rationality in which reoptimization is costly. Households respond to windfall income shocks by choosing a finite planning horizon over which to reoptimize, and the optimal planning horizon is increasing in wealth and the magnitude of the income shock. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model’s distribution of consumption responses is consistent with three key facts: even highly liquid households have large consumption responses out of income shocks, the fraction of households with positive consumption responses increases with shock size, and conditional on responding, larger shocks generate smaller consumption responses.

DOI
10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104174
Volume
176
Pages
104174
Language
en
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