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Air pollution and managers’ forecasting ability

Ashiq Ali¹; Zhongwen Fan²; Siman Li^3,4

¹ The University of Texas at Dallas · ² City University of Hong Kong · ³ Lingnan University · ⁴ Xiamen University

Abstract This study examines the relation between U.S. managers’ short-term exposure to air pollution and their forecasting ability. We focus on air pollution due to PM 2.5 , a fine particulate matter that can easily penetrate an indoor, climate-controlled environment. We show that the short-term ambient PM 2.5 level at the firm’s headquarters before a management earnings forecast issuance is negatively associated with the accuracy of the forecast. Also, the short-term ambient PM 2.5 level before an earnings announcement is negatively related to the likelihood of a concurrent management forecast issuance. These relations occur at PM 2.5 levels below the U.S. air quality standard. A battery of additional tests validate these findings. These results suggest that a transitory exposure to PM 2.5 at levels common in the United States temporarily decreases managers’ forecasting ability. The temporary cognitive impairment from short-term exposure to modest levels of PM 2.5 , as documented in epidemiological studies, is presumably the reason.

DOI

10.1007/s11142-025-09895-3

Volume

30 (4)

Pages

3464-3513

Language

en

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