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The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia

Tanguy Bernard¹; Stefan Dercon²; Kate Orkin³; Giulio Schinaia⁴; Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse⁵

¹ Bordeaux School of Economics (BxSE) – University of Bordeaux and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (INRAE) , · ² University of Oxford and Centre for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR), United Kingdom and Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD) , · ³ University of Oxford and Centre for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR) , · ⁴ University of Chicago · ⁵ International Food Policy Research Institute

Abstract Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomized controlled trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention that aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations, and through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and who serve as relatable role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households had increased future-oriented investments in agriculture, children’s education, and assets. The results can be explained by an increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.

DOI

10.1093/qje/qjag002

Volume

141 (2)

Pages

1383-1447

Language

en

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BibTeX

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