Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 41 No. 3 1927
The Monetary Theory of the Trade Cycle and Its Statistical Test Cycle and Its Statistical Test
Abstract
Experience revealed the trade cycle; deductive explanations followed and were invented to fit the statistical evidence, 471. — The trade cycle is above all a periodical fluctuation in manufacturing activity and in the price level, the two fluctuating together, 472. — Statistical records show the correspondence between the fluctuations of consumers' outlay, prices, and production, while theory has arrived at the generalization deductively, 475. — Monetary theory of the trade cycle suffices to account for periodicity of 7 to 11 years. The sequence of events, 477. — The theory depends upon the connection between currency in circulation and the gold supply; but since the War this condition has not been fulfilled, 478. — Tests of the capital-goods and money theories, 483. — Difficult to find statistical test of the psychological theory, 484.
- DOI
- 10.2307/1883702
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 471
- Sources
- openalex crossref