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Are Bond-financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis

Bennett T. McCallum1,2

1 National Bureau of Economic Research · 2 Carnegie Mellon University

Journal of Political Economy 1984 open access

This paper considers the possible theoretical validity of the following "monetarjst hypothesis": that a constant, positive government budget deficit can be maintained permanently and without inflation if it is financed by the issue of bonds rather than money. The question is studied in a discrete-time, perfect-foresight version of the competitive equilibrium model of It is shown that the monetarist hypothesis is invalid if the deficit is defined exclusive of interest payments, but is valid under the conventional definition. It is also shown that the stock of bonds can grow indefinitely at a rate in excess of the rate of output growth, provided that the difference is less than the rate of time preference.

DOI
10.1086/261211
Volume
92 (1)
Pages
123-135
Language
en
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