Journal of Political Economy Vol. 134 No. 7 2026
The Zero-Beta Interest Rate
Abstract
We use equity returns to construct a time-varying measure of the zero-beta interest rate: the expected return of a stock portfolio orthogonal to the stochastic discount factor. In contrast to safe rates, the zero-beta rate fits the aggregate consumption Euler equation remarkably well both unconditionally and conditional on monetary policy shocks and is high, volatile, and persistent enough to explain the average return and most of the volatility of the market portfolio. The puzzle is why safe rates are so low, stable, and disconnected from both consumption and the zero-beta rate.
- DOI
- 10.1086/740220
- Volume
- 134
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2074-2118
- Language
- en
- Sources
- openalex semanticscholar crossref