Journal of Political Economy Vol. 134 No. 1 2026
The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from the Chicago School
Abstract
Many ideas succeed in small trials but weaken considerably at scale. Using early childhood investment as a case study, this paper develops a dynamic microfounded human capital model stylized in the Chicago tradition. The framework features optimizing agents, complementary skill formation, and a policymaker choosing scaling strategies. The model shows that naive extrapolation from pilots systematically overestimates societal impact by overlooking voltage drops: declining benefit-cost profiles due to unrepresentative samples and contexts. Optimal scaling requires option C thinking, a mechanism-based design approach that anticipates these failures through backward induction from real-world implementation constraints. Studies in this special issue enrich the model’s insights.
- DOI
- 10.1086/739436
- Volume
- 134
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-48
- Language
- en
- Sources
- openalex crossref