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Journal of Political Economy Vol. 134 No. 6 2026

Health Shocks, Health Insurance, Human Capital, and the Dynamics of Earnings and Health

Elena Capatina1; Michael P. Keane2

1 Australian National University · 2 Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), and University of New South Wales

Abstract

We develop a life-cycle model of labor supply and human capital formation that incorporates health shocks, health insurance, and medical treatment decisions. We use the model to study effects of health shocks on health, labor supply, earnings, and earnings inequality. We also simulate provision of public insurance to agents who lack employer-sponsored insurance. While this increases medical spending substantially, it creates positive labor supply incentives for low-skill workers while reducing costs of social insurance, Medicaid, and free care. The net program cost is modest, and all model agents are ex ante better off in a balanced budget simulation.

DOI
10.1086/739831
Volume
134
Issue
6
Pages
1714-1774
Language
en
Sources
openalex semanticscholar crossref

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