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Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany

Wolfgang Dauth¹; Sebastian Findeisen²; Jens Suedekum³

¹ University of Würzburg and IAB, Sanderring 2, 97070 Würzburg, Germany (e-mail: ) · ² University of Mannheim, L7, 3-5, 68131 Mannheim, Germany (e-mail: ). · ³ Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Universitätsstraβe 1, 40225 Düsseldorf, Germany (e-mail: )

The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment, but this decline is much sharper in import-competing than export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy.

DOI

10.1257/aer.p20171025

Volume

107 (5)

Pages

337-342

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

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