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Monotonicity among Judges: Evidence from Judicial Panels and Consequences for Judge IV Designs

Henrik Sigstad

BI Norwegian Business School, Department of Economics (email: )

American Economic Review 2026

Judge IV designs rely on monotonicity—each judge being weakly stricter than more lenient judges in all cases. I measure monotonicity in judicial panels in five different settings and find that it is violated in up to 50 percent of nonunanimous cases. The monotonicity violations are not detected by conventional tests, but they would typically induce little bias in judge IV estimates. (JEL C26, K41, K42, O17)

DOI
10.1257/aer.20231104
Volume
116 (1)
Pages
189-208
Language
en
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