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American Economic Review 1984

Will productivity growth recover. Has it done so already

Martin Neil Baily

Abstract

The author reviews the latest information on productivity and the alternative explanations of the slowdown, which he concludes was partially due to a decline in innovation and work effort and mostly due the post 1973 energy price increases. Identical policy responses to the worldwide inflation were also a reason why so many countries experienced slow growth at the same time, as cyclical productivity declines were added to the structural decline. There are signs that productivity growth is recovering, which gives credence to the view that the temporary shocks of the 1970s were the culprit.

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