Trade and Employment Efects in the United States of Multilateral Tariff Reductions
This paper summarizes certain aspects of my research into the trade and employment effects in the United States of a significant multilateral reduction in tradedistorting measures by the world's major trading nations. The study differs from earlier investigations into this question such as those by Giorgio Basevi (1968), Stephen Magee (1973), Robert Stern (1964), and Beatrice Vaccara and Walter Salant (1960) in that the industry breakdown is much more detailed and the consequences of a multilateral tariff reduction on both U.S. export and import-competing industries is taken into account. By estimating not only the net trade and employment effects of a significant tariff reduction in over 350 industries but also in the 50 states and on some 14 occupational groups, it is hoped that the results will be useful for those who are now embarked on the so-called Tokyo round of trade negotiations within the framework of the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Another novel feature of the study is the estimation of the net employment effects of multilateral tariff cuts under the assumption of flexible exchange rates.
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