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“Bad” Oil, “Worse” Oil, and Carbon Misallocation

Renaud Coulomb¹; Fanny Henriet²; Léo Reitzmann³

¹ Mines Paris–PSL University (CERNA, i3), France and Department of Economics, FBE, University of Melbourne , · ² Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE , · ³ Paris School of Economics–École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales ,

Abstract Not all barrels of oil are created equal: their extraction varies in both private cost and carbon intensity. Leveraging a comprehensive micro-dataset on world oil fields, alongside detailed estimates of carbon intensities and private extraction costs, this study quantifies the additional emissions and costs from having extracted the “wrong” deposits. We do so by comparing historical deposit-level supplies to counterfactuals that factor in pollution costs, while keeping annual global consumption unchanged. Between 1992 and 2018, carbon misallocation amounted to at least 11.00 gigatons of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2eq), incurring an environmental cost evaluated at $2.2 trillion (US$ 2018). This translates into a significant supply-side ecological debt for major producers of high-carbon oil. Looking forward, we estimate the gains from making deposit-level extraction socially optimal at about 9.30 GtCO2eq, valued at $1.9 trillion, along a future aggregate demand pathway coherent with the objective of net-zero emissions in 2050, and document unequal reserve stranding across oil nations.

DOI

10.1093/restud/rdaf018

Volume

93 (1)

Pages

404-437

Language

en

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