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Behavioural Causal Inference

Ran Spiegler1,2

1 Tel Aviv University · 2 University College London

Review of Economic Studies 2026

Abstract When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions’ causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium analysis of the steady-state welfare cost of bad controls. I obtain tight upper bounds on this cost. Equilibrium forces drastically reduce it when types’ sets of controls contain one another.

DOI
10.1093/restud/rdaf050
Volume
93 (2)
Pages
1323-1353
Language
en
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