The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 100 No. 5 2018
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
Abstract
Here’s why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t on the four most recent values as of date t - h achieves all the objectives sought by users of the HP filter with none of its drawbacks.
- DOI
- 10.1162/rest_a_00706
- Volume
- 100
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 831-843
- Language
- en
- Sources
- openalex crossref