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Fortunate Sons: New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States Using Social Security Earnings Data

Bhashkar Mazumder

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005

Previous studies, relying on short-term averages of fathers' earnings, have estimated the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) in earnings to be approximately 0.4. Due to persistent transitory fluctuations, these estimates have been biased down by approximately 30% or more. Using administrative data containing the earnings histories of parents and children, the IGE is estimated to be around 0.6. This suggests that the United States is substantially less mobile than previous research indicated. Estimates of intergenerational mobility are significantly lower for families with little or no wealth, offering empirical support for theoretical models that predict differences due to borrowing constraints.

DOI
10.1162/0034653053970249
Volume
87 (2)
Pages
235-255
Language
en
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