← Search

Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

Marshall Burke¹; J. A. Dykema²; David B. Lobell¹; Edward Miguel³; Shanker Satyanath⁴

¹ Stanford University · ² Harvard University Press · ³ University of California, Berkeley · ⁴ New York University

Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_00478

Volume

97 (2)

Pages

461-471

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

crossref openalex