The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 104 No. 4 2022

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

Christiane Baumeister¹; Dimitris Korobilis²; Thomas K. Lee³

¹ University of Notre Dame, NBER, and CEPR · ² University of Glasgow · ³ U.S. Energy Information Administration

Abstract

We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_00977

Volume

104

Issue

4

Pages

828-844

Language

en

Sources

openalex crossref

Cite

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