Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?

Hongbin Li; Junsen Zhang

doi:10.1162/rest.89.1.110

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Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?

Hongbin Li^1,2; Junsen Zhang^1,2

¹ Chinese University of Hong Kong · ² Institute of Economics

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2007

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic growth. The finding not only supports the view of Malthus, but also suggests that China's birth control policy is indeed growth enhancing.

DOI: 10.1162/rest.89.1.110
Volume: 89 (1)
Pages: 110-117
Language: en
Export: BibTeX
Sources: openalex crossref