← Search

Forecasting The Path of U.S. CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Information

Maximilian Auffhammer¹; Ralf Steinhauser²

¹ University of California, Berkeley · ² Australian National University

We compare the most common reduced-form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings, and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state-level panel data set of CO2 emissions, we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced-form models. We find that leading models in the literature, as well as models selected based on an emissions per capita loss measure or different in-sample selection criteria, perform significantly worse compared to the best model chosen based directly on the out-of-sample loss measure defined over aggregate emissions.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_00152

Volume

94 (1)

Pages

172-185

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

openalex crossref