← Search

Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap

Rochelle M. Edge^1,2; Jeremy B. Rudd^1,2

¹ Federal Reserve · ² Federal Reserve Board of Governors

We consider the revision properties of Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the output gap after the mid-1990s and examine the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve's output gap is more reliably estimated in real time than previous studies have documented for earlier periods and alternative estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real-time rather than on final estimates of the output gap.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_00555

Volume

98 (4)

Pages

785-791

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

openalex crossref