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The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 102 No. 3 2020

Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?

Toke Aidt1; Zareh Asatryan2; Lusine Badalyan3; Friedrich Heinemann4

1 University of Cambridge and CESifo, Munich · 2 ZEW Mannheim · 3 University of Giessen · 4 ZEW Mannheim and University of Heidelberg

open access

Abstract

We report robust evidence of a new short-run monetary election cycle: the monthly growth rate of the money supply (M1) around elections is higher than in other months in a sample of low- and middle-income countries. We hypothesize this is related to systemic vote buying. Consistent with this, we find no cycle in authoritarian countries and countries with strong political institutions and a pronounced cycle in elections where international election monitors reported vote buying or in close elections. Using survey data on daily consumer expenditures, we show that within-household consumption of food increases in the days before elections.

DOI
10.1162/rest_a_00820
Volume
102
Issue
3
Pages
409-425
Language
en
Sources
openalex crossref

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