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Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa

Ulrich J. Eberle¹; Dominic Rohner²; Mathias Thoenig³

¹ Princeton University [email protected] · ² Geneva Graduate Institute, University of Lausanne and CEPR [email protected] · ³ University of Lausanne and CEPR [email protected]

Abstract We investigate the impact of climate shocks on farmer-herder violence, using geolocalized data on conflict events for Africa, 1997-2014. We find that a one degree temperature increase yields a 54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders (versus 17% in non-mixed areas). Quantifying the impact of projected climate change in 2040, we find that -when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements- annual conflicts are predicted to rise by a third. Drawing on a fine-grained analysis of groups' mobility patterns, we show that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_01546

Pages

1-47

Language

en

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