The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 49 No. 4 1967
Induced Changes in Trade and Payments
Abstract
The study derives the parameters needed to estimate the effect of an autonomous change in one country's imports on world trade. From the experience of the 1952-1963 period, one obtains for each of the 12 major industrial nations and the rest of the world (as a group) least-squares regression estimates for two sets of parameters: (1) the impact on imports of a change in exports, and (2) the geographic distribution of the import change. Incorporating these results in a set of simultaneous equations, one finds the impact of an exogenous change in the imports of a single country on the exports and trade balance of that country and all others. The findings show that aside from the United States, all major industrial countries adjust their imports to changes in export earnings. US exports and balance of payments, as a rule, absorb a large portion of the worldwide trade disturbances generated by any country's import change. (Author)
- DOI
- 10.2307/1928337
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 517
- Sources
- crossref openalex