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Underlying Inflation and Asymmetric Risks

Hervé Le Bihan¹; Danilo Leiva-León²; Matías Pacce³

¹ Banque de France [email protected] · ² European Central Bank [email protected] · ³ Banco de España [email protected]

Abstract We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework jointly estimated on disaggregated sub-components of the euro area HICP and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second, it helps to timely track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory performance with respect to various criteria relevant for inflation monitoring.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_01522

Pages

1-45

Language

en

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