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Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles

Yongsung Chang^1,2; Sunoong Hwang³

¹ Yonsei University · ² University of Rochester · ³ Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.

DOI

10.1162/rest_a_00436

Volume

97 (1)

Pages

116-133

Language

en

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BibTeX

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