Breaking Trends and the Money-Output Correlation
The Review of Economics and Statistics
1997
This paper examines the impact on the money-output correla-tion of a univariate specification that allows time series to be characterized as stationary around a broken trend function. Though pretesting suggests that U.S. real output (industrial production) can be described as broken-trend stationary, this result has only limited impact on the money-output correlation. Before 1985 there is a strong Granger causal relationship between money and broken-detrended output (but not first-differenced output), even when different short-term interest rates are used as regres-sors. However, after 1985 this relationship weakens significantly, whether or not one determines that output has a unit root.
- DOI
- 10.1162/003465397557097
- Volume
- 79 (4)
- Pages
- 674-679
- Language
- en
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- BibTeX
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