The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 42 No. 1 1960
Nurkse on Patterns of Trade and Development
Abstract
T HIS is second series of Wicksell Lectures which were auspiciously inaugurated in I958 by Robert Triffin's brilliant lectures, Future of European Payments System. Nurkse delivered his first lecture, Contrasting Trends in igth and 20th Century World Trade, in Stockholm on April 7, I959, and second, Economy and Problem of Growth, on April io. He was able to add an appendix, Dynamic Aspects of Trade Theory (summarizing remarks presented for discussion in a seminar at Stockholm after lectures) shortly before his sudden and entirely unexpected death, which occurred on May 6 while he was walking on Mont Pelerin above Vevey in Switzerland. These papers thus constitute last contribution of a distinguished economist of our time whose career was tragically cut short in fifty-second year of his life. And a most important contribution it is to two fields of economics, international trade and economic which he so much enriched in several books and a long series of articles. He had evidently spent much care in preparation of these lectures. They are a gem of genre of economic literature, the combination of history and theory, in which he was a master, and a perfect example of the delicate manner in which he used but did not over-use available statistics as well as his sense for finding balanced proportions between theory and historical facts in interpreting trends of economic development, to quote from Professor Lundberg's moving introduction. In first lecture he contrasts of underdeveloped in nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The nineteenth century method he characterizes as development through international trade, quoting Marshall's dictum, which sounds strange to our ears, that the causes which determine economic progress of nations belong to study of international trade. 1 Nurkse finds role of international trade in stimulating of poorer greatly reduced in our time. Much emphasis is placed upon alleged lag in exports of poorer as compared with total world exports in recent years (I928-54). In my opinion, this theme is somewhat overemphasized. But Nurkse does not fail to mention that such a lag can be found only in exports of poorer and that it is sizable only if oil-exporting are excluded. On other hand, imports of poorer countries, excluding or including petroleum exporters, have risen faster than world imports. The gap between exports and imports reflects, of course, larger capital imports into poorer areas. It is undoubtedly true, however, that in mid-twentieth century the world's industrial centers . . . are not exporting their own rate of growth to primary producing at same rate as in earlier periods. The most important reason for this difference is, it seems to me, lack of massive emigration from Europe in our time. This fact is only hinted at in present lectures, but Nurkse dwelt on it in other publications.2 The underdeveloped and rapidly-developing in nineteenth century were countries of recent settlement (Hilgerdt), which received capital and skilled labor in large quantities from Old World. Today's underdeveloped cannot expect (or do not want) large immigration to speed their development. There are, however, a few exceptions. Some in Latin America had a chance immediately after World War II to get large numbers of European immigrants. But nationalistic policies prevented them from making use of this unique opportunity to accelerate their rate of growth. In second lecture three patterns of are distinguished: (i) growth through exports of primary products, (2) growth through exports of manufactured consumer goods, and (3) expansion of output for domestic markets. * Patterns of Trade and Development. Wicksell Lectures I959 (Stockholm, Distributors: Almquist & Wicksell) by Ragnar Nurkse with an introduction by Eric Lundberg. 63 pages. 'Principles (8th edition), 270. 2 E.g. in International Investment To-day in Light of Igth Century Experience. The Economic Journal, December, 1954.
- DOI
- 10.2307/1926101
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 97
- Sources
- openalex crossref