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What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues

John V. Duca¹; John Muellbauer²; Anthony Murphy³

¹ Oberlin College, Department of Economics, and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department. · ² Nuffield College, Institute for New Economic Thinking, and Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford. · ³ Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department.

The role of real estate during the global financial and economic crisis has prompted efforts to better incorporate housing and financial channels into macro models, improve housing models, develop macroprudential tools, and reform the financial system. This article provides an overview of major, recent contributions to the literature in relation to earlier research on what drives housing prices and how they affect economic activity. Particularly emphasized are studies, both theoretical and more strongly evidence-based, that connect housing markets with credit markets, house price expectations, financial stability, and the wider economy. The literature reveals much diversity in the international and regional behavior of house prices and the need to improve data tracking key housing supply and demand influences. Also reviewed are studies examining how monetary, macroprudential, and other policies affect house prices and access to housing. This survey is designed to help readers navigate the plethora of recent studies and understand the unsettled issues and avenues for further research. The findings should be of interest to policy makers concerned with financial stability as well as those dealing with the role of housing in the wider economy (JEL E32, E44, E63, G01, G21, R31).

DOI

10.1257/jel.20201325

Volume

59 (3)

Pages

773-864

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

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