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Journal of Labor Economics Vol. 40 No. 2 2022

The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy

Ozkan Eren; Michael F. Lovenheim1,2; H. Naci Mocan3

1 National Bureau of Economic Research · 2 Cornell University · 3 Louisiana State University

Abstract

We present the first analysis of the effect of grade retention on adult criminal convictions, exploiting test cutoffs for ninth-grade promotion in Louisiana. Eighth-grade retention increases the likelihood of violent crime conviction by 1.05 percentage points (58.44%) and increases the number of violent crime convictions at first conviction. The effects are likely driven by declines in high school peer quality and reduced educational investments that result in lower noncognitive skill acquisition. Extrapolating effects away from the cutoff shows that our results are generalizable to a larger group of low-performing students and are evident for both property and drug crimes.

DOI
10.1086/715836
Volume
40
Issue
2
Pages
361-395
Language
en
Sources
openalex crossref

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