A Game Theory Model for Agricultural Crop Selection
In this paper a game theoretic model will be developed for the determination of acreage allocation among four crops-wheat, corn, oats, and soybeans. The model will be functionally dependent upon statistical demand elasticity curves and will be applied to data for the period 1948-1958 for the United States. Elements of an individual farmer's strategy will be presented. In addition, the optimal game theoretic acreage allocation for the above period for total United States production will be compared with the actual acreage allocation for the four crops. The discussion throws light on the reasons for some of the variations in annual acreage for the above crops. A GAME theoretic model will be developed for an agricultural crop selection problem. The effect of competitive marketing aspects will be indicated in the allocation of cropland among four commodities. By reducing the problem to a two-person game between an individual farmer and a hypothetical combination of all the forces that determine market prices, the importance of the individual withholding crop intentions information from the group as part of his optimal strategy will be indicated. The optimal allocation of total acreage for the United States will be given from the game theory viewpoint. This will be compared with the actual allocation of the four crops: wheat, corn, oats, and soybeans for the period 1948-1958 in the United States. Good correlation will be shown between the actual allocation of corn acreage and the game theoretic optimal allocation. For oats, good correlation will be shown between the actual allocation for the current year and the game theoretic optimal allocation for the previous crop year. Poor correlation will be shown for wheat and soybeans. An attempt will be made to explain these correlation results.
- DOI
- 10.2307/1910216
- Volume
- 30 (2)
- Pages
- 253
- Export
- BibTeX
- Sources
- openalex crossref