← Search

What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging

Sandra J. Geiger^1,2; Jana K. Köhler¹; Zenith N. C. Delabrida³; Karla A. Garduño-Realivazquez⁴; Christian A. P. Haugestad⁵; Hirotaka Imada⁶; Aishwarya Iyer⁷; Carya Maharja^8,9; Daniel C. Mann¹⁰; Michalina Marczak¹¹; Olivia Melville¹²; Sari R. R. Nijssen¹; Nattavudh Powdthavee¹³; Radisti A. Praptiwi¹⁴; Gargi Ranade¹⁵; Claudio D. Rosa^16,17; Valeria Vitale¹⁸; Małgorzata Winkowska¹⁹; Lei Zhang^20,21,22,23; Mathew P. White^24,25

¹ Environmental Psychology Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria · ² Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, USA · ³ Department of Psychology, Federal University of Sergipe, Brazil · ⁴ Department of Accounting, University of Sonora, Mexico · ⁵ Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Norway · ⁶ Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology, Japan · ⁷ Department of Psychology, Christ University, India · ⁸ Yayasan Puspa Hanuman Indonesia, Indonesia · ⁹ School of Psychology, University of Plymouth, United Kingdom · ¹⁰ Konrad Lorenz Institute of Ethology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria · ¹¹ School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland · ¹² Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Canada · ¹³ Department of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore · ¹⁴ Research Center for Ecology and Ethnobiology, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia · ¹⁵ The Shallow End Collective, Bangalore, India · ¹⁶ Development and Environment, State University of Santa Cruz, Brazil · ¹⁷ Department of Physical Education, Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Northern Minas Gerais (IFNMG), Brazil · ¹⁸ Department of Psychology of Developmental and Socialization Processes, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy · ¹⁹ Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Sweden · ²⁰ Centre for Human Brain Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom · ²¹ Institute for Mental Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom · ²² Center for Developmental Science, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom · ²³ Social, Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience Unit, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria · ²⁴ Cognitive Science Hub, University of Vienna, Austria · ²⁵ Department of Clinical and Health Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria

Most people believe in human-caused climate change, yet this public consensus can be collectively underestimated ( pluralistic ignorance ). Across two studies using primary data ( n = 3,653 adult participants; 11 countries) and secondary data ( n s = 60,230 and 22,496 adult participants; 55 countries), we tested (a) the generalizability of pluralistic ignorance about climate-change beliefs, (b) the effects of a public-consensus intervention on climate action, and (c) the possibility that cultural tightness-looseness might serve as a country-level predictor of pluralistic ignorance. In Study 1, people across 11 countries underestimated the prevalence of proclimate views by at least 7.5% in Indonesia (90% credible interval, or CrI = [5.0, 10.1]), and up to 20.8% in Brazil (90% CrI = [18.2, 23.4]. Providing information about the actual public consensus on climate change was largely ineffective, except for a slight increase in willingness to express one’s proclimate opinion, δ = 0.05 (90% CrI = [−0.02, 0.11]). In Study 2, pluralistic ignorance about willingness to contribute financially to fight climate change was slightly more pronounced in looser than tighter cultures, highlighting the particular need for pluralistic-ignorance research in these countries.

DOI

10.1177/09567976251335585

Volume

36 (6)

Pages

421-442

Language

en

Export

BibTeX

Sources

crossref openalex