Journal of Financial Markets Vol. 79 2026
Technical indicators and the cross-section of corporate bond returns in a machine learning era
open access
Abstract
We explore the use of technical indicators to forecast corporate bond returns with various machine learning models. We show that technical indicators yield statistically significant and economically meaningful results, consistently outperforming bond characteristics. Although bond characteristics possess predictive power for bond returns, they do not provide incremental value beyond technical indicators across all bonds. Additionally, machine learning models do not offer substantial improvements over the benchmark linear model. These results underscore the significance of technical indicators in the corporate bond market.
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.finmar.2025.101029
- Volume
- 79
- Pages
- 101029
- Language
- en
- Sources
- crossref openalex