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American Economic Review Vol. 116 No. 9 2026

Optimal Public Transportation Networks: Evidence from the World's Largest Bus Rapid Transit System in Jakarta

Gabriel Kreindler1; Arya Gaduh2; Tilman Graff1; Rema Hanna3; Benjamin A. Olken4

1 Harvard University (email: ) · 2 University of Arkansas (email: ) · 3 Harvard Kennedy School (email: ) · 4 MIT (email: )

open access

Abstract

Designing public transport networks involves trade-offs between coverage, service frequency, and direct service. We use the expansion of the bus system in Jakarta, Indonesia, to study these trade-offs. We analyze how new direct connections, changes in bus travel time, and wait-time reductions affect bus ridership and aggregate flows and estimate a transit network demand model by matching the route launch events. Commuters in Jakarta are 2–3 times more sensitive to wait time than bus time and inattentive to long routes. We develop a flexible framework to characterize optimal networks. A less concentrated network would increase ridership and commuter welfare.

DOI
10.1257/aer.20230768
Volume
116
Issue
9
Pages
3330-3379
Language
en
Sources
crossref openalex

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