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Abstracts
  • Kline, P., & Walters, C. R. (2019). On Heckits, LATE, and Numerical Equivalence. Econometrica, 87, 677–696.
    FT50 A*

    Structural econometric methods are often criticized for being sensitive to functional form assumptions. We study parametric estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE) derived from a widely used class of latent threshold crossing models and show they yield LATE estimates algebraically equivalent to the instrumental variables (IV) estimator. Our leading example is Heckman's (1979) two-step (?Heckit?) control function estimator which, with two-sided non-compliance, can be used to compute estimates of a variety of causal parameters. Equivalence with IV is established for a semiparametric family of control function estimators and shown to hold at interior solutions for a class of maximum likelihood estimators. Our results suggest differences between structural and IV estimates often stem from disagreements about the target parameter rather than from functional form assumptions per se. In cases where equivalence fails, reporting structural estimates of LATE alongside IV provides a simple means of assessing the credibility of structural extrapolation exercises.

    View on doi.org
  • Mogstad, M., Torgovitsky, A., & Walters, C. R. (2021). The Causal Interpretation of Two-Stage Least Squares with Multiple Instrumental Variables. The American Economic Review, 111, 3663–3698.
    FT50 A*

    Empirical researchers often combine multiple instrumental variables (IVs) for a single treatment using two-stage least squares (2SLS). When treatment effects are heterogeneous, a common justification for including multiple IVs is that the 2SLS estimand can be given a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of local average treatment effects (LATEs). This justification requires the well-known monotonicity condition. However, we show that with more than one instrument, this condition can only be satisfied if choice behavior is effectively homogeneous. Based on this finding, we consider the use of multiple IVs under a weaker, partial monotonicity condition. We characterize empirically verifiable sufficient and necessary conditions for the 2SLS estimand to be a positively weighted average of LATEs under partial monotonicity. We apply these results to an empirical analysis of the returns to college with multiple instruments. We show that the standard monotonicity condition is at odds with the data. Nevertheless, our empirical checks reveal that the 2SLS estimate retains a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of the effects of college attendance among complier groups.

    View on www.aeaweb.org
  • Ganimian, A. J., Muralidharan, K., & Walters, C. R. (2024). Augmenting State Capacity for Child Development: Experimental Evidence from India. Journal of Political Economy, 132, 1565–1602.
    FT50 A*

    We use a large-scale randomized experiment to study the impact of augmenting staffing in the world?s largest public early-childhood program: India?s Integrated Child Development Services. Adding a worker doubled net preschool instructional time and led to increases of 0.28σ and 0.46σ in math and language test scores after 18 months for children who remained enrolled in the program and 0.13σ and 0.10σ for all children enrolled at baseline. Rates of stunting and severe malnutrition were also lower in the treatment group for children who remained enrolled. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that the benefits of augmenting staffing significantly exceed its costs. These effects are likely to replicate even at larger scales of program implementation.

    View on doi.org
  • Kline, P., Rose, E. K., & Walters, C. R. (2024). A Discrimination Report Card. The American Economic Review, 114, 2472–2525.
    FT50 A*

    We develop an empirical Bayes ranking procedure that assigns ordinal grades to noisy measurements, balancing the information content of the assigned grades against the expected frequency of ranking errors. Applying the method to a massive correspondence experiment, we grade the race and gender contact gaps of 97 US employers, the identities of which we disclose for the first time. The grades are presented alongside measures of uncertainty about each firm's contact gap in an accessible report card that is easily adaptable to other settings where ranks and levels are of simultaneous interest.

    View on www.aeaweb.org
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Last update from database: 9/16/24, 10:02 PM (AEST)