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We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storablecommodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters.In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventorylevels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use ourestimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 RenewableFuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers'surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat.Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used toproduce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent.