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Monetary Policy Regimes Implications for the Yield Curve and Bond Pricing

Resource type
Authors/contributors
Title
Monetary Policy Regimes Implications for the Yield Curve and Bond Pricing
Abstract
We develop a multivariate dynamic term structure model, which takes into account the nonlinear (time-varying) relation between interest rates and the state of the economy. In contrast to the classical term structure literature, in which nonlinearities are captured by increasing the number of latent state variables or by latent regime shifts, in our no-arbitrage framework the regimes are governed by thresholds and are directly linked to economic fundamentals. Specifically, starting from a simple monetary policy model for the short rate, we introduce a parsimonious and tractable model for the yield curve, which takes into account the possibility of regime shifts in the behavior of the Federal Reserve. In our empirical analysis, we show the merit of our approach three dimensions: interpretable bond dynamics, accurate short end yield curve pricing, and yield curve implications.
Publication
Journal of Financial Economics
Volume
113
Issue
3
Pages
427-454
Date
2014
Citation
Audrino, F., De Giorgi, E., & Filipova, K. (2014). Monetary Policy Regimes Implications for the Yield Curve and Bond Pricing. Journal of Financial Economics, 113, 427–454.
Topic
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