A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
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Results 319 resources
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Monetary policymakers are uncertain about the state of the economy and learn from the economy's reaction to policy. Private agents, however, anticipate any systematic attempt to incorporate this information into future policy. The authors analyze this feedback in the context of a monetary authority's attempt to stimulate an economy in recession. They show that modest stimuli may prove ineffectual. If small reductions in interest rates are unlikely to promote a response, then they may be followed by further cuts. A vicious circle develops in which the expectation that the policy could fail leads investors to delay investment, thereby promoting failure. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.
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The authors study a dynamic model of labor migration in which moving costs decrease with the number of migrants already settled in the destination. This assumption is supported by sociological studies of migrant networks. With endogenous moving costs, migration occurs gradually over time. Once it starts, it develops momentum and migratory flows may increase even as wage differentials narrow. In addition, migration tends to follow geographical channels and low-moving-cost individuals migrate first. These patterns are consistent with historical evidence from the Great Black Migration of 1915-60, much of which cannot be reconciled with existing migration models. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.
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During recessions, output prices seem to rise relative to wages and raw-material prices. One explanation is that imperfectly competitive firms compete less aggressively during recessions. That is, markups of price over marginal cost are countercyclical. The authors present a model of countercyclical markups based on capital-market imperfections. During recessions, liquidity-constrained firms boost short-run profits by raising prices to cut their investments in market share. The authors provide evidence from the supermarket industry in support of this theory. During regional and macroeconomic recessions, more financially constrained supermarket chains raise their prices relative to less financially constrained chains. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.
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This article investigates whether differences in information-based trading can explain observed differences in spreads for active and infrequently traded stocks. Using a new empirical technique, we estimate the risk of information-based trading for a sample of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listed stocks. The authors use the information in trade data to determine how frequently new information occurs, the composition of trading when it does, and the depth of the market for different volume-decile stocks. Their most important empirical result is that the probability of information-based trading is lower for high volume stocks. Using regressions, we provide evidence of the economic importance of information-based trading on spreads. Coauthors are Nicholas M. Kiefer, Maureen O'Hara, and Joseph B. Paperman.
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The authors examine debenture yields over the period 1983-91 to evaluate the market's sensitivity to bank-specific risks and conclude that investors have rationally reflected changes in the government's policy toward absorbing private losses in the event of a bank failure. Although this evidence does not establish that market discipline can effectively control banking firms, it soundly rejects the hypothesis that investors cannot rationally differentiate among the risks undertaken by the major U.S. banking firms.
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Panel and time-series data describing the green-revolution period in India are used to assess the effects of exogenous technical change on the returns to schooling, the effects of schooling on the profitability of technical change, and the effects of technical change and school availability on household schooling investment. The results indicate that the returns to (primary) schooling increased during a period of rapid technical progress, particularly in areas with the highest growth rates. Such increases induced private investment in schooling, net of changes in wealth, wages, and the availability of schools, and school expansion importantly increased levels of schooling. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.
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The authors analyze a multiperiod model of trading with differentially informed traders, liquidity traders, and a marketmaker. Each informed trader's initial information is a noisy estimate of the long-term value of the asset and the different signals received by informed traders can have a variety of correlation structures. With this setup, informed traders not only compete with each other for trading profits, they also learn about other traders' signals from the observed order flow. The authors' work suggests that the initial correlation among the informed traders' signals has a significant effect on the informed traders' profits and the informativeness of prices.
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Past research explains observed spreads between futures and forward Eurodollar yields as being due to the futures contract's mark-to-market feature. The authors derive closed-form solutions for this yield spread and show that, theoretically, it should be small. Also, differences in liquidity, taxation, and default risk cannot account for the large spreads observed. The authors also present evidence that the spreads, which are nonneglible primarily in the first half of the sample period, are likely to be attributable to the mispricing of futures contracts relative to the forward rates and that the mispricing was gradually eliminated over time.
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