A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
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Results 319 resources
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We develop a new procedure to forecast future cash flows from a financial asset and then use the present value of our cash flow forecasts to calculate the asset's fundamental price. As an example, we construct a nonlinear ARMA-ARCH-Artificial Neural Network Model to obtain out-of-sample dividend forecasts for 1920 and beyond, using only in-sample dividend data. The present value of our forecasted dividends yield fundamental prices that reproduce the magnitude, timing, and time-series behavior of the boom and crash in 1929 stock prices. We therefore reject the popular claim that the 1920s stock market contained a bubble.
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Most analyses treat global warning as a single-agent problem. The present study presents the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE) model. By disaggregating into countries, the model analyzes different national strategies in climate-change policy: pure market solutions, efficient cooperative outcomes, and noncooperative equilibria. This study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies; that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries; and that high-income countries may be the major losers from cooperation. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.
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Canonical valuation uses historical time series to predict the probability distribution of the discounted value of primary assets' discounted prices plus accumulated dividends at any future date. Then the axiomatically rationalized maximum entropy principle is used to estimate risk-neutral (equivalent martingale) probabilities that correctly price the primary assets, as well as any predesignated subset of derivative securities whose payoffs occur at this date. Valuation of other derivative securities proceeds by calculation of its discounted, risk-neutral expected value. Both simulation and empirical evidence suggest that canonical valuation has merit.
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The authors simultaneously address three basic issues regarding the corporation: the optimal scope of operation, the optimal financial structure, and the relationship between these two. The starting point is that financial structure serves as a bonding device on the managers' self-interest behavior. The effectiveness of this bonding depends on the distribution of the firm's future cash flow, which in turn depends on the firm's scope. The authors' theory also links the firm's investment decisions to its operation scope. As empirical implications, the theory reconciles the failure of the 1960s U.S. conglomerates with the success of the Japanese keiretsu.
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