A Fast Literature Search Engine based on top-quality journals, by Dr. Mingze Gao.
- Topic classification is ongoing.
- Please kindly let me know [mingze.gao@mq.edu.au] in case of any errors.
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Results 419 resources
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We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run ? and therefore does not look like a standard technology shock ? but affects productivity with substantial delay ? and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One structural interpretation for this shock is that it represents news about future technological opportunities which is first captured in stock prices. This shock causes a boom in consumption, investment, and hours worked that precedes productivity growth by a few years, and explains about 50 percent of business cycle fluctuations. (JEL G12, E32, E44)
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In an experiment, players? ability to learn to cooperate in the repeated prisoner?sdilemma was substantially diminished when the payoffs were noisy, even thoughplayers could monitor one another?s past actions perfectly. In contrast, in one-timeplay against a succession of opponents, noisy payoffs increased cooperation, byslowing the rate at which cooperation decays. These observations are consistentwith the robust observation from the psychology literature that partial reinforcement(adding randomness to the link between an action and its consequences whileholding expected payoffs constant) slows learning. This effect is magnified in therepeated game: when others are slow to learn to cooperate, the benefits of cooperationare reduced, which further hampers cooperation. These results show that asmall change in the payoff environment, which changes the speed of individuallearning, can have a large effect on collective behavior. And they show that theremay be interesting comparative dynamics that can be derived from careful attentionto the fact that at least some economic behavior is learned from experience. (JELC71, C72, C73, D83)
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Labor supply theory predicts systematic heterogeneity in the impact of recent welfarereforms on earnings, transfers, and income. Yet most welfare reform research focuseson mean impacts. We investigate the importance of heterogeneity using randomassignmentdata from Connecticut?s Jobs First waiver, which features key elements ofpost-1996 welfare programs. Estimated quantile treatment effects exhibit the substantialheterogeneity predicted by labor supply theory. Thus mean impacts miss a great deal.Looking separately at samples of dropouts and other women does not improve theperformance of mean impacts. We conclude that welfare reform?s effects are likely bothmore varied and more extensive than has been recognized. (JEL D31, I38, J31)
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Automobile manufacturers frequently use promotions involving cash incentives.While payments are nominally directed to either customers or dealers, the ultimatebeneficiary of the promotion depends on the outcome of price negotiation. We useprogram evaluation methods to compare the incidence of these two types ofpromotions. Customers obtain 70 to 90 percent of a customer rebate, but only 30 to40 percent of a dealer discount promotion, a $500 difference for a typical promotion.Our leading hypothesis is that pass-through rates differ because of information asymmetries: customer rebates are well-publicized to customers, while dealerdiscount promotions are not. (JEL D82, L11, L15, L62, L81, M31)
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We propose a framework for understanding episodes of vigorous economic expansionand extreme asset valuations. We interpret this phenomenon as a highvaluationequilibrium with a low cost of capital based on optimism about futurefunding. The key ingredient for such equilibrium is feedback from increased growthto a decline in the long-run cost of capital. This feedback arises when an expansioncomes with technological progress in the capital sector, when fiscal rules generateprocyclical fiscal surpluses, when the rest of the world has lower expansionpotential or high saving needs, and when financial constraints are relaxed by theexpansion itself. (JEL E22, O33, O41)
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We illustrate problems of measuring discrimination using elections to AEA offices. With a new econometric technique, we find female candidates have a much better than random chance of victory. This advantage is either reverse discrimination or reflects beliefs that women are more productive. The former interpretation could be explained by an unchanging median voter whose preferences were not satisfied by suppliers of candidates; but there was a structural change in voting behavior in the mid-1970s. The results suggest it is generally impossible to claim differences in rewards, for different groups measure the extent of discrimination or even its direction. (JEL A11, D72, J16)
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The phenomenon of choice shifts in group decision-making has received attention in the social psychology literature. Faced with a risky group decision, individuals appear to support more extreme choices relative to those they would make on their own. This paper demonstrates that from a decision-theoretic perspective, choice shifts are intimately connected to failures of expected utility theory. In the model studied here, the Allais paradox is equivalent to a well-studied configuration of choice shifts. Thus, our results marry two well-known behavioral regularities, one in individual decision theory and another in the social psychology of groups. (JEL D71, D81)
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We analyze a model of participation in elections in which voting is costly and no vote is pivotal. Ethical agents are motivated to participate when they determine that agents of their type are obligated to do so. Unlike previous duty-based models of participation, in our model an ethical agentś obligation to vote is determined endogenously as a function of the behavior of other agents. Our model predicts high turnout and comparative statics that are consistent with strategic behavior. (JEL D72)
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