Knowledge that Transforms

We show that a structural model incorporating firms’ real options and financial leverage decisions can generate forward-looking equity distributions of various shapes, resulting in highly flexible implied volatility surfaces. In contrast, exogenously specified models with stochastic volatility and jumps can only generate smiles and downward-sloping curves. We explain the observed negative relationship between downward sloping implied volatility surfaces and the value of real options: real options contribute positively to equity skewness, and more so the more convex their payoff, which is the case when the real option is “at-the-money” and has the lowest value.

We examine how strengthened anti-money laundering (AML) enforcement affects the U.S. banking sector. Heightened enforcement disproportionately raises compliance costs for small banks, especially in counties more exposed to money laundering. In these areas, small banks contract while large banks expand, increasing standardized, government-supported, and secured lending. While aggregate county-level credit does not decline differentially, local outcomes improve. Small establishments grow, non-tradable employment and wages rise, and real estate prices increase. The evidence is consistent with a reallocation mechanism in which AML enforcement shifts activity toward large banks, potentially improving intermediation quality through changes in the composition of local financial intermediation.

We propose a novel approach to synthesize presumably information-driven insider trading signals for the cross section of stocks. We find that the resulting straightforward composite strategy can often forecast returns in a global sample. This predictability is strongest in equal-weighted portfolios, short holding periods, and insider-buying signals, and it improves further with global diversification. Cross-country analysis reveals that varying insider trading restrictions between countries have limited explanatory power for the performance of the composite strategy. Overall, the results are consistent with a short-term informational advantage of insiders, which might be due to the skillful interpretation of non-private news.

We examine how domestic product market competition shapes firms’ foreign market expansion. Using a panel of U.S. public firms from 1997 to 2017 and text-based measures of output offshoring, we show that stronger domestic competition increases foreign sales activity. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit the competitive effects of policy-induced variation from staggered rejections of the Inevitable Disclosure Doctrine. Further tests indicate that these labor mobility shocks that intensify competitive pressure spur foreign expansion primarily among firms with stronger intangible and organizational capabilities and higher profitability. The findings suggest that domestic competition is an important driver of foreign market expansion.

We measure flow diversification in mutual funds using the cross-sectional correlation of daily flows across investor clienteles. Greater flow diversification is associated with lower future flow volatility, smaller subsequent outflows, and lower cash holdings. We decompose flow correlation into predictable and unexpected components. Unexpectedly low flow correlation is associated with higher post-outflow fund returns, mitigating outflow-induced externalities on incumbent shareholders. Flow diversification also dampens the higher flow-performance sensitivity of illiquid funds, partially offsetting strategic complementarities that can generate fragility.

Mutual fund families increasingly outsource the portfolio management task to external advisors. The high-powered incentive contract offered to external advisors, presumably an optimal outcome, implicitly creates convexity in their payoff. We provide causal evidence that this convexity makes the conditional portfolio choice of outsourced mutual funds about twice as risky as in-house funds, which leads to their underperformance. However, fund families can curb excessive risk-shifting unconditionally by: invoking the reputation of external advisor(s) when marketing the fund (co-branding) and hiring geographically proximate external advisors (co-location). Hiring multiple external advisors simultaneously (co-management) is also effective, specifically when underperforming.

Sovereign credit default swaps spreads price the credit risk embedded in government borrowing. We ask how macroeconomic fundamentals predict that risk, and whether a linear mapping from fundamentals to spreads is adequate. Across a large panel of OECD economies, linear methods perform well across countries but lose predictive accuracy after 2022 and fail to capture how spreads vary across maturities. Nonlinear methods recover both. While linear forecasts mainly rely on fiscal ratios, nonlinear predictions draw on the term-structure slope throughout, inflation during the 2022–2024 monetary tightening, and consumer confidence during the Eurozone crisis. These predictive relationships hold panel-wide rather than country-by-country.

We provide novel international evidence that inflation is positively associated with corporate credit risk on average. A 1-standard-deviation increase in inflation is associated with a 21-basis-point increase in next-year credit default swap spreads. Importantly, this relationship is convex: it is negative or weak at low inflation levels but much more positive in high-inflation environments. The positive relation between inflation and credit risk is stronger for firms with greater refinancing vulnerability and more rigid operating cash flows, and in countries with more inflation-responsive monetary regimes and weaker institutional environments. Our findings are consistent with opposing roles for debt rigidity and operating rigidity.

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Past research has documented a substantial finance wage premium. We examine whether this premium reflects differences in lifetime career opportunities. Using resume data, we reconstruct career trajectories in finance and nonfinance sectors and build synthetic measures of career attractiveness that account for compensation levels, growth, and risk. We find that asset management and investment banking provide a sizable risk-adjusted career premium relative to banking, insurance, and other sectors. This premium has declined across cohorts, particularly relative to high tech. Labor-market entry patterns respond to these premia: potential entrants treat finance and high-tech careers as substitutes when choosing where to start.