Knowledge that Transforms

We study the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions by constructing a new index of real-time port congestion using Automatic Identification System data from container ships and a spatial clustering algorithm. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links upstream production slack to downstream supply shortages and captures output and price responses to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, spare capacity, and market tightness provide novel identification restrictions. We find that demand and supply shocks drove US disinflation in 2020, while the inflation surge in 2021 was driven mainly by supply chain shocks.

How do majority groups respond to narrowing inequality in racially polarized environments? We study this by examining the Freedmen's Bureau, an agency created after the US Civil War to aid former slaves and launch institutional reform in the South. Using new historical records and an event-study approach, we estimate the bureau's impact on political, social, and economic outcomes. Vote shares for Democrats, the party that previously championed slavery and opposed Black civil rights, initially eroded in bureau counties, but these impacts faded as federal oversight weakened. Racial backlash emerged rapidly and persisted, suggesting White majorities sought to offset Black progress.

This paper studies how collective bargaining affects wages and amenities. By merging collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) to linked employer-employee data in Brazil, I combine rich contracted amenities with wage information. I implement a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits a court ruling enforcing CBA continuation (i.e., ultra-activity) to estimate the effects of union bargaining power. Strengthening unions raises wages and amenities without reducing employment—increasing retention despite some labor-labor substitution. A revealed-preference approach shows that amenities account for 45 percent of total compensation gains. These findings suggest that collective bargaining can offset monopsony power, but employers retain the right-to-manage workforce composition.

Durables represent a large share of households' marginal propensity to spend (MPX). We develop a quantitative model of spending that takes durables into account and matches a rich set of empirical regularities simultaneously. Scaling the response of nondurables provides a poor approximation of the MPX on durables when it comes to its distribution in the population, its persistence over time, and its cyclicality. As an application, we study how the MPX varies with the size of stimulus checks and find that it declines more slowly compared to a model of purely nondurable spending.

We study residential segregation and access to public services across 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods in India. Muslim and Scheduled Caste segregation in India is high by global standards and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the United States. Within cities, public facilities and infrastructure are systematically less available in Muslim and Scheduled Caste neighborhoods. Nearly all regressive allocation is across neighborhoods within cities—at the most informal and least studied form of government. These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy.

Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2024) and obtain implied returns of 140 to 210 percent over the postwar period. The estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for one-fifth of business-sector TFP growth since WWII and imply substantial underfunding of nondefense R&D.

This paper studies the economic impacts of carbon pricing. Exploiting institutional features of the European carbon market and high-frequency data, I identify carbon policy shocks and trace their dynamic effects. A restrictive carbon policy shock raises energy prices, reduces emissions, spurs green innovation, but decreases economic activity—disproportionately burdening poorer households. Not only are the poor more affected because of their higher energy spending, but they also experience larger income losses. These indirect, general equilibrium effects via income and employment play an important role in the transmission of carbon pricing policies, accounting for about two-thirds of the aggregate consumption response.

This paper highlights racial and ethnic preferences in corporate director elections. Using a comprehensive dataset of mutual fund voting records, we discover that mutual fund managers are more likely to vote for director nominees who share their racial or ethnic identity. Funds managed by White-dominated teams exhibit the strongest same-race preferences, particularly those in fund families with scarce minority representation. Same-race voting preferences have detrimental implications for the career outcomes of minority director candidates, and are associated with worse fund performance primarily when fund managers operate under weaker accountability. We investigate various potential mechanisms—including statistical discrimination, value maximization, conflicts of interest, social networks, and taste-based biases—and find that the evidence aligns most closely with a taste-based explanation for same-race preferential voting.